January Recap and February Outlook As goes January, so goes the year. That old stock market canard has a double-edged meaning this year, as the stock market as measured by the S&P came in strongly positive. But the path to getting there included dashed...

The drama around the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first cuts to the key short-term interest rate continued in last few weeks of the old year and into the first week of the new year. Two months of slowing labor market data, coupled with a change to the wording in...

November Recap and December Outlook After a year in which Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell managed to hold everyone’s attention – again – here we are waiting for the outcome of the last FOMC meeting of the year. A few weeks ago, with the narrative of rates being...

October Recap and November Outlook The Federal Reserve's November meeting went as the market expected: no change in rates. What wasn't expected was the October and early November rollercoaster of bond yields. And by rollercoaster, think Kingda Ka. The ten-year U.S....

September Recap and October Outlook The outcome of the Fed's meeting in September was to hold rates at the current level. It has been described as a "hawkish pause," and the Fed was clear in post-meeting remarks and statements that one more increase is still possible...